Does Heat or Rain Generate More Tremors? Ovsicori Made New Analysis of this Popular Belief

    A record of 2,114 tremors since 2010 was analyzed

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    “With this heat right now an earthquake is coming” or “those tremor clouds” are recurring phrases in culture that science has refuted several times, arguing that there is no correlation between climate and geological behavior.

    The issue was again analyzed by the Volcanological and Seismological Observatory of the National University (Ovsicori), which this Tuesday published a review of the earthquakes felt by the population between 2010 and 2023.

    In total, the sum amounts to 2,114 tremors. Those that occurred in national territory and others with an epicenter in Nicaragua or Panama but that moved local soil are counted.

    Having data from almost a decade and a half allowed scientists to compare the monthly data, to extract a pattern over time and once again reaching the known conclusion: there are no links between what happens on the earth and below it.

    Analyzing month by month

    To obtain the final results, Ovsicori compared the counts of each month between 2010 and 2023.Except for the varied data in some months of January, the statistics showed that there are no exceptions or changes depending on the season.

    “The monthly count of felt earthquakes presents a random or stochastic distribution, which suggests that there is no direct relationship between the number of felt earthquakes and the time (dry or rainy) of the year,” the publication mentions.

    The measurement is based on the “correlation coefficient”. This measures values ​​between -1 and 1, with 0 when there is no link and 1 when it is total.When applying the instrument to tremor records, it was determined that this index remains at low values.

    “There is no seasonal variation in the number of felt earthquakes. Or, there is no increase in the number of earthquakes felt during the rainy season compared to the dry season; but rather that its distribution is random,” concludes Ovsicori.The compared data shows that the monthly averages of tremors are between 150 and 200. By magnitude, the average ranges from 3.4 to 3.7 (Ovsicori)

    The striking data of the tremors

    The work of seismologists found other striking data.For example, 2011 was the year when the fewest tremors were perceived, while 2019 is the year with the highest number of earthquakes felt by the population, with a total of 215.

    During 2019, despite the fact that multiple events generated in the Central Valley and the Central Pacific were felt, two earthquakes with a magnitude equal to or greater than 6.0 and their larger magnitude aftershocks, occurred in Puerto Armuelles, on the border with Panama, significantly increased the number of reports.

    Added to this is a change in the management of information by the population. With social networks, interaction has increased and with this, reports on the movements that people feel have been better fed.

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