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    How Global Conflicts Are Changing Expat Lives

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    Even in 2025, moving abroad is still possible. However, global instability is leading expats to take extra precautions. Which countries are still considered safe? What risks should you assess before taking the plunge?

    Choosing a Destination in a Tense Global Context

    Traditionally, people have chosen where to move based on job opportunities, quality of life, salary levels, or visa accessibility. But in 2025, expats must consider another factor: global conflicts.

    Personal goals, such as learning a language, pursuing a dream, or seeking a better work-life balance, are still important. But now they must be weighed against current political realities. In some regions, tensions are so high that relocation may need to be postponed indefinitely. If your government advises against travel to high-risk countries like Russia, Iran, Niger, or Venezuela, it’s best to follow that advice. The same applies to countries where non-essential travel is advised against.

    In short, choosing where to live now means listening to both your aspirations and your country’s security recommendations. But what if a conflict breaks out in a place previously considered safe?

    Middle East: An Uneasy Calm

    On June 23, 2025, Iranian missiles attacked a US military base in Qatar, just one day after the US bombed three nuclear sites in Iran. Iran claimed responsibility but asserted that Qatar was not the target. Doha did not take the incident lightly and considered responding. Both locals and expats were shocked. Many never imagined witnessing war so closely.

    Until that moment, Qatar and neighboring countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia had felt relatively safe compared to the rest of the region. Its perceived stability has long attracted expats: foreigners make up 88% of Qatar’s population, 90% in the United Arab Emirates, and 44% in Saudi Arabia. Although the brief “12-day war” is over and daily life has resumed, some expats no longer view their host country as safe as before.

    Is Europe still a safe bet?

    It seems surprising, but even Europe faces growing uncertainty. Several European leaders have made alarming statements. In response to Russia’s increasingly aggressive stance, countries such as Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are on high alert, along with Finland, Sweden, and France. Finland has declared it is “preparing for the worst,” while France warned that war could come to Europe within five years.

    These statements are not intended to cause panic. In fact, Europe continues to actively attract foreign talent and investment. But they mark a change. European governments want to raise awareness: the peace they have enjoyed for decades can no longer be taken for granted.

    Foreign residents across the continent are understandably concerned. Most hope for a peaceful resolution in Ukraine and believe that diplomacy will prevail. While Russia’s ambitions are not new, current tensions require vigilance. Still, few want to focus on the worst-case scenarios. For many expats, continuing with normal life has become a silent form of resistance.

    When Borders Close or Tighten

    Moving abroad involves not only choosing a destination but also being allowed in. Global instability has led some countries to tighten entry requirements, either temporarily or permanently.

    In Qatar, for example, airspace was briefly closed following the Iranian missile attack, grounding dozens of flights and disrupting travel for several days.

    Longer-term restrictions are also emerging. The US has reinstated its controversial “travel ban,” blocking entry to citizens of some 20 countries, including Iran, Yemen, Chad, and Afghanistan, citing national security concerns. Other countries, such as Cuba, Laos, Burundi, and Venezuela, also face stricter visa regulations. In response, Chad has stopped issuing visas to Americans. Limited exceptions exist for diplomats, 2026 World Cup athletes, and participants in the 2028 Olympics.

    These bans don’t just affect future travelers. Expats already in the US may struggle to bring family members. The emotional toll is real: even those with legal status can feel singled out.

    When Expats Are Forced to Move

    Some people don’t choose to move, but are forced to. These “involuntary expats” are relocated without their consent, often under pressure or threat. International law explicitly prohibits this practice.

    What is forced relocation?

    According to the Migration Data Portal, forced displacement occurs when people are forced to move due to conflict, disasters, or state actions. The Council of Europe calls it “population transfer,” whether within or across national borders.

    These people have no choice. They can be relocated to communities already under pressure from state forces. Forced relocation often involves violence, intimidation, and, in the worst cases, ethnic cleansing. It constitutes a gross violation of human rights.

    Some are displaced by natural disasters. However, even these “climate refugees” may face mistreatment or neglect in their new environments. Questions remain: How can fair treatment be ensured? How will host communities react? Most displaced populations live in precarious conditions. International organizations fear that some governments may exploit the crisis to take advantage of already vulnerable groups.

    Are there still safe havens for expatriates?

    Some media outlets have published lists of so-called “safe countries” for expatriates, including Costa Rica, Iceland, Greenland, Chile, Argentina, South Africa, Switzerland, New Zealand, Fiji, Indonesia, Bhutan, and Tuvalu.

    These countries are often noted for being geographically isolated from conflict (Iceland, Greenland), rich in natural resources (South Africa, Chile), or politically stable (New Zealand, Switzerland).

    But these lists are not infallible. Some countries are considered “defensible” because they are small or remote, such as Bhutan or Tuvalu, but would struggle to absorb large numbers of expatriates. Others are already facing economic crises (Argentina, South Africa) or environmental threats (Tuvalu, Greenland). Greenland, for example, is now facing political pressure from the US, which has hinted at annexation.

    While these lists may offer reassurance, they should be viewed with caution.

    Should we expect new international relocation trends?

    Some countries, like Thailand, are emerging as unexpected havens. In cities like Pattaya, authorities report a decline in tourists but an increase in long-term arrivals, including digital nomads, families, and skilled professionals. Many are fleeing instability in countries like Iran. This is more than a passing fad; it reflects a profound shift in the reasons people decide to move abroad. Leisure travel is declining, while migration for safety and opportunity is increasing. Governments and local services are adapting to support these new arrivals. However, the most popular expat destinations remain largely the same. Political unrest, climate risks, and terrorist threats may be increasing, but most expats aren’t giving up on their goals. They’re simply acting more cautiously.

    In short: moving abroad is still possible. But in 2025, it’s less about seeking adventure and more about making informed, careful decisions.

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