More than 810,000 Quebec workers are at risk of losing their livelihood due to automation and artificial intelligence, according to a study by the Quebec Institute (IDQ).
In a study published on January 15 in collaboration with the Future Skills Center, the IDQ identified 96 occupations vulnerable to automation and the adoption of artificial intelligence. The jobs at risk of disappearing include cashiers, waiters, accounting auditors, manufacturing machine operators and workers specialized in livestock raising.
This is approximately 18% of the working population. These workers are mainly found in the sales, services and manufacturing sectors, but also, increasingly, in office occupations, administrative assistants or accounting auditors.
For these workers, the options for reorientation towards another profession with a relatively comparable salary are limited. However, the number of workers at risk is even greater when considering professionals who have better prospects for reorientation.
For example, translators see their profession threatened by the main language models. However, the Quebec Institute believes that their language skills give them the tools to reorient themselves towards teaching. The study therefore does not include among the 810,000 vulnerable workers translators and other professionals who can be reoriented more easily.
The CD Howe Institute, for its part, estimated that nearly a third of jobs in Quebec were at high risk of being automated, according to a study published in May 2022. For its part, the IDQ wanted to focus its analysis on workers who would have the most difficulty finding another field of work. We wanted to bring this nuance, to say to ourselves: In terms of public policy, perhaps the most important thing is to focus on these workers who are vulnerable and who, ultimately, the labour market will not allow them to get back on track easily.
People Without a Diploma Are The Most Vulnerable
The situation is more worrying for workers without a degree. People without studies represent 27% of those working or looking for work in a vulnerable profession.
University graduates are not entirely spared either, but they are in a better position. Only 8% of professions are in a vulnerable situation. This is particularly the case for accounting auditors. The educational, social and community sectors, as well as the artistic and cultural sectors, are largely spared from the technological disruptions that lie ahead.
While certain tasks could be automated or replaced by AI, not all tasks in these jobs will be able to be. We think of the empathy or emotional intelligence required, which means that these jobs are not as at risk as others.
Gradual Changes
The launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 has created a sudden effect of AI awareness. Many Internet users routinely use AI for their work or daily tasks, whether it is writing an email or making a recipe using ingredients they have in their kitchen. The adoption of AI should be much more gradual in companies and governments.
In many cases, investment, training, and a strategic plan are required to integrate these technologies. Therefore, it could be a much slower process than we imagine, explained Emna Braham.
According to the Quebec Institute study, only 12% of companies in this province plan to use artificial intelligence in the next year. However, Quebec is ahead of the curve when compared to other Canadian provinces, explained Anthony Migneault, senior economist at IDQ.
