Costa Rica could experience in the coming months a low economic growth and a slight increase in inflation; in addition, a slow stabilization of interest rates, in a year that will be marked by the run-up to the presidential elections of 2026. It is essential that the country establish actions to accelerate the growth of the economy, keep inflation low and reduce unemployment (mainly underemployment).
National expert Emilio Zevallos Vallejos points out that, in view of the political movements in view of the presidential elections of 2026, the outlook could become even slower.
Meanwhile, at the international level, a slow stabilization of inflation and interest rates is expected, with a significant impact on the national economy and on employment, where the effect will be tenuous and, probably, more dynamic in companies in the free zone.
“Another of the great challenges for 2025 is to maintain healthy public finances, improving the balance between the weight of indirect taxes, which all citizens pay, and direct taxes. Inflation will probably maintain its tendency to slow growth, but greater than that observed in 2024,” says Emilio Zevallos Vallejos.
Historical net international reserves
On the other hand, the expert highlights that the net international reserves of the Central Bank show a historical record of more than 14 billion dollars, which almost doubles the average reserves, so the possibilities of a depreciation of the currency are very low for 2025.
In this sense, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to fluctuate between 510-530 colones per dollar during this year, however, it is recommended to take into account that what happens in 2026 and beyond is highly uncertain, in case of acquiring new credits in that currency.
Avoid new borrowing
“At this time, it is important for people to consider minimizing new borrowing, whether in colones or dollars, until interest rates truly reflect the cost of money and are aligned with current and expected inflation. For those who are able to save, it would be good if they could do so in local currency,” explains Prof. Zevallos.
