Costa Rica is heading toward a demographic transformation that will have direct consequences for its educational system. The population between 5 and 14 years old will decline by 28% between 2024 and 2033, according to projections included in Education at a Glance 2026, published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The projected drop for Costa Rica is considerably larger than the forecast for the OECD as a whole, where the 5-to-14 population is expected to decrease by 9% over the same period. The report warns that this demographic decline will pose an increasingly relevant challenge for educational systems over the coming decade.
This phenomenon is not limited to Costa Rica. Among the countries and economies analyzed by the OECD, the largest projected reductions in the 5-to-14 population correspond to South Korea (-40%), Argentina (-28%), Costa Rica (-28%), Latvia (-23%), Lithuania (-22%), Japan (-19%), Italy (-18%), and Poland (-17%).
Furthermore, this demographic shift will not stop with those nearing or currently enrolled in compulsory education. The OECD projects that in Costa Rica, the population aged 4 and under will also decrease by 16% between 2024 and 2033. This trend is significant because it indicates that the contraction of the student population could extend well beyond the next decade.
OECD: It’s Not Simply a Matter of Having Fewer Students
The decline in the child population might lead one to think that the educational system will automatically require fewer teachers and less infrastructure. However, the OECD warns that the relationship is not so straightforward.
The number of teachers a school system needs depends on much more than just student numbers. It is also shaped by decisions regarding class sizes, teacher working hours, instructional time, school organization, funding, and the territorial distribution of the population.
Experience from the past decade illustrates this difference. Between 2015 and 2024, the number of primary school students across OECD countries increased by just 2%, yet the number of primary teachers, measured in full-time equivalents, grew by 13%.
In Costa Rica, a different combination occurred: the number of primary school teachers increased by 8% while the number of students decreased by 3% during that same period. Consequently, a projection of 28% fewer children does not automatically mean Costa Rica will need 28% fewer teachers.
The OECD notes that the demographic drop could reduce the demand for teachers if all other policies remain unchanged. However, it also cautions that staffing needs will depend on how the population decline is distributed across regions, alongside policy choices regarding class sizes, teacher attrition, and educational financing.
Costa Rica Already Has a Network of Small Schools
Territorial impact is another critical factor as the child population shrinks. According to the OECD, primary schools in member countries and partner economies have an average of 34 students per grade. In Costa Rica, the figure is considerably lower: an average of 17 students per grade per institution, based on 2024 data used by the organization.
This difference is driven by factors such as geographic population distribution and the necessity of maintaining educational access in sparsely populated communities. The OECD points out that small schools can offer advantages, including closer relationships between students and teachers, greater family participation, and stronger community ties.
However, they can also entail higher costs per student, particularly when maintaining infrastructure and staff for a reduced enrollment is required.
The Challenge Will Be Greatest in Rural Areas
The reduction of the school-age population can have varying effects depending on location. In rural areas, the OECD warns that fewer children may ease pressure on enrollment, but it can also make maintaining a geographically distributed network of schools much harder.
This happens because rural communities can simultaneously face lower fertility rates and outward migration, leading to faster drops in school-age population. When a school serves very few students, keeping it open becomes more costly per pupil. At the same time, closing it or consolidating enrollment elsewhere can drastically increase the distances students must travel to access education.
This presents one of the major dilemmas highlighted by the OECD: the economic efficiency of the educational network must be balanced against territorial access to the service.
Closing a School Can Impact an Entire Community
The report highlights international experiences showing that a rural school serves functions far beyond education alone. The OECD cites the case of Finland, where rural communities experienced population declines after losing their local schools.
This example demonstrates that closing an educational center can have consequences that reach beyond enrollment numbers, disrupting the overall dynamics of a community. Consequently, facing demographic decline, some countries have chosen to reorganize their systems without necessarily eliminating educational availability in specific localities.
The OECD mentions Portugal, among other examples, where the administration and governance of several schools were consolidated into groupings while keeping educational offerings active across multiple locations.
