Cities around the world, including Canada, have been losing skiing and ice-skating days for years as a result of climate change. Instead of having snow days every year, they now have weeks of rain, snowmelt and mud days, according to a new analysis by Climate Central, a nonprofit climate research and communications agency.
In Canada, some cities and regions have lost more than two weeks of winter weather compared to what they would have had without human-induced climate change. Vancouver lost 19 days, the Nanaimo region in the province of British Columbia lost 18 days and the Niagara region in the province of Ontario lost 15 days of snow.
Major Canadian cities, known for being cold, also have fewer cold days. On an annual basis, Toronto lost 13 days of freezing temperatures, Montreal lost 6 and Calgary lost 5.
Kristina Dahl, Climate Central’s vice president of science, said these recent changes are most notable because snow turns to rain when the temperature rises above freezing, which is 0 °C.
The disappearance of snow and cold also has emotional effects because winter is a time for vacations in the warmth of home in many parts of the world, Dahl added.
Climate Central analyzed daily minimum temperatures in December, January and February in 901 cities and 123 countries around the world between 2014 and 2023. It tallied the change in the number of days with temperatures above zero during that period to compare with what they would have been without climate change caused by environmental pollution due mainly to the burning of fossil fuels.
Why Did Some Places Lose So Many Winter Days?
More than one-third of the countries analyzed lost at least one week of winter days during the last decade. The most affected countries, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, lost up to 23 days of winter days.
Some countries and regions, such as Europe and Canada, are warming faster than the global average. Many parts of Canada, such as coastal British Columbia and southern Ontario, were also heavily impacted because their winter temperatures already tend to hover around 0°C. Therefore, it does not take a major climate change for there to be several winter days with temperatures above the freezing threshold, Dahl added.
Robert McLeman, director of the RinkWatch Project, which is tracking outdoor rinks in Canada for the 14th season this year, said the biggest change has come with the onset of winter. He noted that the new analysis from the Climate Central agency is a great tool for Canadians to recognize that our climate is changing.
The report did not detail what period of the winter the cold days are disappearing, but McLeman, a professor at Wilfrid Laurier University who has studied historical records of ice rink construction, said that half a century ago, people were building ice rinks in southern Ontario in early December and the ski slopes had plenty of snow to run before the Christmas vacations.
Now in mid-December, he said, I’m looking out at the green grass right now, from my window in Waterloo, Ontario. He added that local skating rinks now start operating only in the first or second week of January.
But Aren’t Warmer Winters Nice?
Dahl called the loss of the cold days of winter a deli-nightmare. It’s nice to have a break from the frigid temperatures, he acknowledged. But when you stop to think about why this is happening, you really get a sense of alarm because you realize it’s climate change. This can have a lot of negative effects, he added.
It can cause water shortages in areas that rely on snowmelt for both drinking and agriculture; it can allow disease-carrying pests like ticks and mosquitoes to spread to new areas; it can threaten animal and plant populations, as well as disrupt agriculture; it can ruin winter recreational activities that are part of our culture and economy, like skating and skiing.
According to new data, snow levels across British Columbia are well below normal. Experts warn that with less snowpack in the mountains, the province is at risk of a severe drought later this year.
Sapna Sharma, a biology professor at York University, studies how ice is changing on lakes around the world. She found that ice-free years have become much more frequent on many lakes, leading to problems like toxic algae blooms that occur in the summer.
But the freezing and thawing that occurs as the temperature drops above or below freezing more frequently also weakens the ice. Weaker ice conditions contribute to more drownings, he said.
Connor Reeve, a postdoctoral research ecologist at Cornell University, looked at the impact of winter and climate change on animal and plant conservation during his studies at Carleton University in Ottawa.
The lack of ice on the Rideau Canal during that time was a real bummer, he said. He said the Climate Central analysis adds perspective to the changes the world is experiencing.
The loss of winter days demonstrated in that study could affect animals in many ways, especially insects and amphibians that rely on snow cover and ice for winter shelter. As those extreme weather events occur, these species will really be affected, he said.
While those phenomena will affect many human recreational activities, such as fishing and hunting, warmer winters affect many animals and plants in different ways, he said. For example, it will cause less cold-tolerant species to move north and push out species adapted to colder temperatures or lead to a mismatch between codependent species that respond to warmer weather in different ways, such as flowers and pollinators.
The animals we share our cities with could shift due to climate change. A new Canadian study said pests such as ticks and mosquitoes could become more prevalent and birds such as the blue jay could become less common.
Temperatures Could Respond Quickly to Emissions Cuts
Dahl said the trend toward rising temperatures will continue as long as fossil fuels continue to be burned. Some regions will have to adapt, for example by finding new ways to manage water supplies throughout the year to compensate for the loss of snow in winter.
But Dahl said the good news is that temperatures are expected to respond fairly quickly once greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. The latest science suggests that within about 10 years of reaching zero emissions, temperatures would stop rising, he said. So we already know that even in our lifetimes, we could see such a change.
