The BN Valores stock exchange’s economic outlook report for 2025 offers a view of how the economy will behave, both globally and in Costa Rica. Javier Cortés, economist and strategist at BN Valores, explains what this means and how it could impact the country’s daily economic life:
National Outlook
In 2025, Costa Rica’s economic growth will be greater than the average of its main trading partners, even though the pace of expansion will be 3.9%, slightly lower than the 4.1% forecast for this year.
Financial, agricultural and construction activities will show greater expansion compared to 2024, while the rest of the segments will experience a slowdown in their growth.
In 2025, economic dynamism will be concentrated in the services sector and free trade zones, where new job opportunities will probably arise. However, improvements in the labor market will be limited in general, due to the absence of major reforms in recent years.
The economy’s income will maintain its growth in 2025, due to the projected stability of the prices of the main imported raw materials. This element will favor household consumption during the following year, which will register an increase similar to that observed in 2024.
International perspectives
Global growth is expected to be stable for 2025. The better performance expected for the United States will offset the downward revisions of the main economies of Europe, while China and India will stand out among emerging countries.
Despite the expansion outlook, relevant risks must be taken into account, such as the increase in geopolitical and trade tensions, as well as the greater frequency of extreme weather events. Inflation will gradually move towards the central banks’ target, which will likely allow interest rates to continue to decline around the world.
For dollar rates, the pace of reduction will largely depend on the policies implemented by the new administration in the United States and their impact in terms of inflation. Tariff, tax and immigration policies will play a key role in this section.
The key points of the report are summarized below:
Economic growth of 3.9% in 2025: The economy will slightly moderate its expansion. Job creation would be more dynamic in free trade zones.
Low inflation and possibility of lower rates: This reduction could be transmitted to the rates of loans for families and companies.
Stable exchange rate in the first half of the year: Prices of imported products would not rise significantly, at least in the first half of the year.
Key sectors: Services and free trade zones. These sectors will boost growth and could generate new job opportunities.
Contained deficit and fiscal improvement: Will is required to maintain and deepen progress in debt management and public financing.
This economic outlook offers economic opportunities for families and businesses, although it is recommended to pay attention to global changes, such as economic policies in the United States and international trade tensions, Cortés concluded.
International outlook 2025: Global growth will remain stable during the following year, as the good performance of the United States will offset the slow progress of the European economies, while China and India will stand out within the group of emerging countries.
Inflation will continue to moderate gradually, which will allow central banks to extend the interest rate reductions initiated during 2024. However, attention must be paid to the presence of relevant risks, such as the economic policies of the incoming administration in the United States, the possible resurgence of trade tensions and the development of geopolitical conflicts at a global level.
Costa Rica Outlook 2025: In 2025, the Costa Rican economy is expected to experience growth above the average of its main trading partners, despite the expected slowdown in most economic activities.
The dynamism will be concentrated in the services sector and in free trade zones, where new job opportunities will probably arise, although the improvement in the labor market will be limited in general terms.
