The appearance of new COVID-19 cases in Costa Rica has registered a frank and sustained reduction in recent weeks. The trend was confirmed this weekend, according to data provided by the Ministry of Health.
On Friday, January 22, 831 new cases were recorded, of which 201 were due to epidemiological nexus.
On Saturday, January 23, there were 651 new cases and of these, 141 due to nexus
On Sunday, January 24, 431 new cases were registered, of which 66 were people who had contacts with confirmed cases.
This Monday, January 25, 355 new cases were detected, of which 63 cases are by nexus.
In other words, new cases are well below the records that occurred in previous months, when they exceeded 1,000 daily cases, and even exceeded 1,400 daily cases.
Likewise, the ICUs have a sustained decline in recent days, since this Monday they register a lower occupation in recent months. Of 505 hospitalized people and 205 who required more specialized care, 478 were hospitalized patients and 185 who are kept in ICUs.
About deaths from COVID-19, the country has a total of 2,558 cases, of which 1,592 are men and 966 women. The ages of the deceased persons range from zero to 92 years.
From Saturday to Monday, 40 people died from this condition. Of these 14 on Saturday, 11 on Sunday, and this Monday 15 were counted.
There was no uptake of contagion
According to the projections and alarms generated by the Health authorities, last December, by January a sharp increase would be noticed in the number of cases and the saturation of hospital services.
The fear was based on the crowds out shopping for gifts in the Christmas season, also Christmas and end of year celebrations. It was expected that the Intensive Care Units (ICU) would be in a very critical condition and close to overflowing, a situation that did not occur.
Data coincide with studies
The data of the Ministry of Health coincide with studies presented by the Central American Population Center (CCP) of the University of Costa Rica (UCR), which indicates that the reproduction rate of the novel Coronavirus or R0 is 0.85.
This indicative is the lowest since previous April. This means that for every 100 people with COVID-19, they can infect another 85. At this rate, the number of people with the virus will maintain its downward trend. The national average rate of infection is less than one, but it varies between different populations.
For example, in the CCP information, the canton of Dota presents a contagion rate of 4.67. This means that for each person confirmed as a positive case there may be almost 5 new infections. For its part, in Los Angeles de San Ramón, the contagion rate is 2.56; while Los Chiles is 2, and in Siquirres 1.4. The highest peak of COVID-19 infections occurred in the previous June when the contagion rate was 1.7 according to academic measurements.
January will close with fewer cases
By the beginning of the year, the Development Observatory of the University of Costa Rica (UCR) estimated that January would close with around 195,000 and 220,000 accumulated cases. From March 2020 until this Monday, the country has 190,745 accumulated cases of COVID-19.
Agustín Gómez, a researcher at the UCR Development Observatory, specified that in an optimistic scenario, January will close with 195,000 accumulated cases of COVID-19. Meanwhile, with the most pessimistic outlook, 213,000 accumulated cases would be reached.
“The scenario in which we had been visualizing was to reach 220,000, but that would no longer be so true, rather we would be dropping to 213,000 in the pessimistic scenario. “If there is a decrease in the intensity in which we would be projecting those cases. We are always within the order of 190,000 cases and 200,000 cases, which is an acceptable range, “Gómez stressed.