Costa Rica is recording a fertility rate close to 1.12 children per woman, falling well below the 1.20 previously forecasted for 2026, according to recent data from the Central American Population Center of the University of Costa Rica (CCP-UCR).
The figure gained widespread attention after the Supreme Elections Tribunal (TSE) reported that 2025 closed with the lowest number of registered births in the last decade.
Demographic specialists attribute this continuous decline to a combination of economic and social factors, alongside shifting personal choices regarding motherhood and family structure.
Key Drivers Behind the Decline
Demographers and social researchers point to several interconnected trends influencing family size in Costa Rica:
- Delayed Motherhood: An increasing number of individuals and couples are delaying the decision to have their first child.
- Smaller Family Units: A growing preference for one-child households over larger family structures.
- Childfree Choices: More individuals making the deliberate decision not to have children.
Socioeconomic Factors Influencing Family Decisions
According to Arodys Robles, a researcher at CCP-UCR, individuals and families weigh multiple practical conditions before deciding to expand their households:
- Childcare Availability: Access to reliable, affordable, and high-quality care options.
- Household Dynamics: The distribution of domestic and caregiving responsibilities within the home.
- Workplace Conditions: Employment stability, parental leave policies, and work-life balance.
- Financial Resources: The long-term economic cost of raising and supporting children.
“Overall, it comes down to evaluating the conditions in which children will be born and raised,” Robles noted.
Robles emphasized that low fertility rates do not always reflect a preference for smaller families. Many women are unable to have the number of children they desire due to structural socioeconomic constraints in their environment.
Long-Term Demographic Shifts
While the drop in birth rates is significant, demographic experts note that the general trajectory is consistent with historical trends.
Jorge Barquero, researcher at CCP-UCR, explained that while the decline was anticipated, the accelerated pace of the drop requires updated forecasting. The CCP-UCR, in coordination with the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC), plans to review its long-term population projections.
The Challenge of Reversing Birth Rate Trends
Gilbert Brenes, also a researcher at the center, highlighted that international experience shows how difficult it is to restore fertility rates once they reach exceptionally low levels.
Brenes emphasized that returning to historical birth rates in Costa Rica is unlikely due to evolving social values, changing labor market dynamics, and greater female autonomy in decision-making.
“No matter what policies are introduced to promote natalism, they would likely have very little impact in reversing the trend observed over recent decades,” Brenes stated.
Slower Population Growth Ahead
Costa Rica’s overall population growth has decelerated dramatically over the past two decades:
| Population Milestone | Year Reached | Time Elapsed |
| 4 Million | 2001 | Base year |
| 5 Million | 2018 | 17 years |
| 6 Million (Projected) | ~2045 | 27 years |
According to INEC projections, reaching 6 million inhabitants will take a full decade longer than the transition from 4 to 5 million, marking a major demographic shift for the nation’s future social and economic planning.
